Commentary
Sabres could use a sixth sense
MATT KRUEGER Sports Reporter
February is generally too early to begin talking about the NHL playoffs, especially with the kinds of seasons the Buffalo Sabres have been having since the lockout. But as the Eastern Conference shapes up to go down to the wire this year, and with 11 teams all vying for eight postseason slots, the playoffs have come early.

As it looks right now, Buffalo's best postseason scenario is to put together a strong surge throughout the remaining 19 games and head into the playoffs with the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference tournament. That would give the Sabres their best chance at winning at least one round.

Of course, the Sabres have to qualify for the playoffs first. Following Monday's 4-3 loss to Philadelphia, Buffalo sat ninth in the Eastern Conference, just out of the playoffs.

But Buffalo doesn't want to just move up enough to grab the eighth and final slot. That would put them in a first-round series against the conference champion. And the way things are going, that could be one of four teams, New Jersey, Ottawa, Pittsburgh or Montreal. Of those four, only Montreal has a losing record against Buffalo this year at 2-3. The other three have made it routine to beat up on the Sabres, winning 10 of 13 games so far this season.

New Jersey plays a stifling defense in front of superstar goalie Martin Brodeur, that has found success in shutting down Buffalo's speedy wingers. Ottawa's top line of Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson makes life difficult for Buffalo's defensemen and goalie Ryan Miller in particular. And if you listen to most analysts, Pittsburgh has the hockey equivalent of Jesus Christ in Sidney Crosby. The Kid and his disciples have won all three games against Buffalo this year.

If Buffalo takes the seventh seed in the tournament, it will have to face the second seed, which would be one of those same four teams. If Buffalo gets hot and moves all the way up to fifth, that would mean a showdown with the fourth seed, the team with the best record of all non-division leaders. Right now, that's Pittsburgh.

No, the best option is the sixth seed, which would pair up the Sabres with the worst of the three division champions. The third seed will most likely come from the Southeast Division, meaning Buffalo would take on either Carolina or Washington. Buffalo is 1-1 against each of those teams and won the most recent meeting with each. Buffalo thumped Carolina,

8-1, and bested Washington, 5-3, in December.

Of course, there's no saying the Sabres couldn't slide into the playoffs with the eighth seed and pull off the upset of the top-ranked team. Buffalo played New Jersey four times this year, taking the Devils to a shootout each game. With the teams playing that close to each other, it's not a far stretch to imagine the Sabres beating the Devils. Ottawa has gotten the better of Buffalo in four out of six games this year, but Buffalo has won the last two, including a 5-1 drubbing two weeks ago.

But the worst matchup for Buffalo is against Pittsburgh. Former Sabre goalie Ty Conklin has owned Buffalo this year, allowing only two goals in three games. Conklin has stopped 98 of 100 shots against Buffalo, making a lot of people wish the team hadn't gotten rid of him after last season.