The real primary winner will be who finishes in second place
BRIAN ACKLEY Political Columnist
When candidates go shopping for voters in next year's New York presidential primary, at least two will undoubtedly be as popular as pre-Easter butter lambs at the Broadway Market.

Of course, favored sons (or would that be a son and a daughter) Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton will slaughter whatever competition appears with them on their respective party's ballots. How much it might actually help either to secure an actual presidential nomination - which is of course one of the keys to why New York's political leaders were oh so anxious to move the state's primary to the first Tuesday in February - is still a subject for plenty of debate.

In fact, forget about who wins the Republican and Democratic balloting then. Both Giuliani and Clinton would probably still win if the only ones eligible to vote were people with the last names McCain, Romney, Obama or Edwards. The real story of New York's primary will be who comes in second, and what percentage of the vote he receives.

But by joining the suddenly scrambled and front-loaded political calendar - New York will move its primary from March 4 to Feb. 5, joining a growing list of delegate-laden states which have already approved, or are almost assuredly going to OK, putting their primaries on that same date - there is already at least one loser, state voters, despite Gov.. Eliot Spitzer's proclamation that the move helps "secure New York's large and diverse population an influential voice."

Uh, no. New York is already being written off by virtually every major candidate whose resume doesn't include mayor of New York City or eight years of living in the White House, ensuring there will be no meaningful or insightful dialogue among any of the front-running candidates here. (Some would argue that's no big loss since New York voters regularly show they don't care about such discussion anyway.)

And, of course, it will mean up-front money is even more omnipotent than ever, thus the dizzying fundraising pace all the major players have already set. In fact, consider yourself warned. When you settle down for next year's Super Bowl extravaganza, those who watch only for the commercials will likely be as bombarded by the Barak brand name as they will be Budweiser.

"It would reach a huge audience at a very critical time," John McCain advisor Mark McKinnion told the Associated Press. He was the chief media planner for George W. Bush's two successful presidential campaigns. "I think the campaigns would look very closely at that."

By joining the "first in wins" race, New York and as many as 20 or so other states - including such prizes as California and New Jersey which are already in and Pennsylvania, Texas, Illinois, Michigan and Georgia among the big hitters seriously considering a switch - have essentially compressed the presidential race into about a two-week horse race, starting in Iowa on Jan. 20.

New Hampshire, South Carolina and heretofore non-player Nevada will vote on Jan. 27. Florida, seems like its played a role or two in recent presidential elections, is likely to vote Jan. 29.

Already white-hot media intensity over those early caucuses will be scorching this time around. That means that winning traditional springboards Iowa and New Hampshire won't just be a campaign boost, they will create potentially unstoppable momentum for the now uber important Feb. 5 vote.

Redefining the word pander, Clinton recently told a group in Fort Madison, Iowa, "We have a lot of farms in New York. Do you all know that? It's true. I know nobody believes that, but I tell everybody that," according to the New York Times.

Giuliani leads McCain by five percentage points in one of the latest Iowa polls, despite the fact he didn't make his first trip there until April 3, and that his advisors are still unsure just how many stops he will make in the Midwestern state. Overlooking Radar O'Reilly's stretch of rural real estate for more glamorous campaign stops would be a mistake, Rudy.

No one can be sure just how this rush to judgment might help or hurt New York's entrants. It'll be different, and fun.

(Brian Ackley is a columnist for the Weekly Independent Newspapers of Western New York. Opinions expressed here are those of the author.)